Israel would be better off in self-imposed exile in Siberia. Imagine a government headed by Netanyahu, with Defense Minister Liberman seated to his right and Foreign Minister Bennett seated to his left. If he does give Liberman the Defense Ministry, he will be forced to give Bennett the Foreign Ministry as compensation. It’s not even worth discussing Bennett in this context this time around, but what about Liberman? He is asking for the Defense Ministry, though it is highly unlikely that Netanyahu will give it to him. It is hardly a position that provides him with diplomatic leverage. And Deri can expect to receive the Interior Ministry in Netanyahu’s fourth government. The problem is that his voters are situated on the right. On a personal level, Deri really does identify with the center-left. He will not commit political suicide just to save Netanyahu’s neck, whether it is in Washington or Brussels.Ĭould the responsible adult in the room this time around be Shas leader Aryeh Deri? The chances of that happening are equally unrealistic. The international arena really is foreign to him. His field of expertise is not in the diplomatic sphere. Kahlon is candidate for the finance minister role, which will keep him very busy. Ostensibly, he could fill the spot, but it's hard to believe that he would focus on diplomatic issues during his upcoming term. So who will Netanyahu’s current fig leaf be? Kahlon is a moderate Likudnik, who has recently adopted a pragmatic centrist approach. It is the reality around him that changed, not him. That he has remained at the same spot exactly. Now, of all times, after Netanyahu disavowed his Bar Ilan speech and announced that there will be no Palestinian state on his watch, only to be forced, one day after the election, to summon American interviewers in a panic just so that he could explain to them that he really didn’t take back his Bar Ilan speech after all. Now, of all times, after Netanyahu lurched wildly to the right in his campaign, just to survive. Now, of all times, however, a fig leaf like that is more essential than ever. Netanyahu’s new government will include Yisrael Beitenu head Avigdor Liberman in his new, far-right incarnation, HaBayit HaYehudi Chairman Naftali Bennett, the ultra-Orthodox parties and Kulanu head Moshe Kahlon. Former Prime Minister Ehud Barak played the same role in Netanyahu’s second government from 2009-13, while in his third government, 2013-15, it was Hatnua head Tzipi Livni, with a dose of Lapid. Mordechai was a moderate pragmatist, who insisted on keeping an open line of communications with Washington and had an especially warm relationship with the United States. During his first term, 1996-99, he received "in-house coverage" from Defense Minister Yitzhak Mordechai. Netanyahu insists on having a fig leaf in every government he forms.
They’ll let him simmer in his own juices, become an outcast in the international community, plead like a pauper for every Security Council veto, and try to withstand the tsunami of ostracism and boycotts expected to rain down on him from Europe, all with the express approval of the United States.
His problem is that the chances of either Herzog or Lapid responding positively to his call tend toward zero. Netanyahu’s fourth government, which he will be hard at work patching together over the next few weeks, will be the first in which he has no diplomatic “fig leaf” to mollify the international community in general and the Barack Obama administration in particular. Netanyahu won’t be doing this out of love or admiration for Herzog or Lapid. He’ll offer a similar invitation to Yesh Atid head Yair Lapid, too. The current estimate is that in just a few weeks, once he finishes putting his right-wing, ultra-Orthodox coalition together, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will call Zionist Camp leader Isaac Herzog, inviting him to join the coalition.
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